Tag Archives: analisis teknikal harga emas

Gold Intraday Setups 29 October 2013

Good day traders!

Gold Intraday Setup

Gold Intraday Setup

Intraday, gold is being pressured to the downside. No high impact news on gold today as the US Core Retail Sale failed to make a significant impact.

I’m looking forward for a retracement towards 1330 and possible buying at the dip.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

Gold: Stabilizing and finding a base

Good day traders!

Gold Daily Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Technical Analysis

Technically;

  1. After registering low at 1554, the yellow metal seem to crawl back to upside. And I really mean it; it’s crawling indeed. If you look at the candles, one by one, you’ll notice that there’s no single day where the buyers and sellers really claim their throne.
  2. What we really know for now is that the yellow metal is trying to find its base or technically, a strong support. And historically, the buyers should have found it by now.
  3. From early June 2012 to end of August the same year, gold had been stabilize itself  in the same fashioned way. It had found a support (1556) and resistance (1634)  zone inside the blue rectangle box. A breakout from the box was accompanied by a long white candlestick and an upside move of the MACD.
  4. I’m not surprise if the current price would take the same action. The buyers should find the  current low (1554) interesting enough to add to their position. A ceiling of 1620/1625 should provide the resistance; although they have to break the psycho level 1600 and fibo 23.6% first.
  5. The main question now is, can gold break more to the downside? Can they actually break the current base and hit a new low? I would leave my answer to 1) the equity market; namely DJIA and 2) the March FOMC meeting.

Till then, happy pipping!

Shufaad

p/s: This chart is provided by IFX Asia. I’m backtesting their platform. For the time being, it’s cool :)

Gold: Break and closed below 1700

Good day traders!

Daily Gold

Technically;

  1. Short and medium term, gold is in down trend. I used 10 and 50 Moving average to monitor the trend. Other than that, I also use ADX to confirm the direction of the trend.
  2. A long black candle is what needed to break the psycho level 1700. Any retracement from the pace should be found near the psycho level area.
  3. Next support lies at 1672 and 1646. The latter is the region to look at.  I personally believe that the yellow metal’s price will be close near this area.
  4. Resistance can be found in the form of pyscho level 1700, 1716 and 1752.
  5. Both MACD and RSI are supporting this view.

What’s on the news today?

News

News to watch today is ADP Non – Farm Employment Change and ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI. ADP should provide early look at employment growth. The latter is a diffusion index, excluding the manufacturing industry.

With all the talks surrounding the fiscal cliff, investors are taking no risk. Holding the greenback seem to be the most safest and logical way to whether the storm. After all, Christmas is just around the corner. It’s Ho-Ho-Ho for them.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

About Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)

Good day traders!

One of the fundamental news that I closely watch is the Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI. Last time PMI were on the 22 Mac and it took the precious metal to the floor.

What is PMI actually?

The PMI is a composite index of the manufacturing situation that includes; new orders, production level, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventories. Data for this index, which is essentially a sentiment indicator for the national manufacturing sector, are obtained through surveys of purchasing managers. Like the Durable Goods Reports and the Industrial Production Report, PMI releases are important to the foreign exchange and metals (gold and silver in this case) because they provide a good measure of the manufacturing sector, which is an integral component of the economy, whether it is the US, the Euro, the German or even China.

So, first off you need to know where you can get the data. As a trader, many would prefer to read it at forexfactory.com. It’s a primary source for fundamental analysis. And have I told you that you’re going to see one tommorow?

US PMI

On the other hand, you can also read it directly from markiteconomics.com. You can read all the PMI details here.

Markit Economics

Now you know where to find it. Next is how to read it. Isn’t that important too? OK. So let’s say we scroll down and click at China: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI dated 1st April 2012. You will eventually download a PDF copy of it.

China PMI

According to this PMI release, China PMI is at 48.3, down from 49.6, in which it means the economy is contracting. And for China alone, it means five consecutive month to month deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions. And it doesn’t look good.

To make matter even worse, US’s PMI looks good, at least it hold above the 50.0 level which eventually means the economy is expand.

So bad data for China and relatively good for US. In terms of gold index, more sellers to be seen with no fresh new orders and also a stronger USD is expected. I wonder which support could hold the price?

Gold Daily

Happy Piping!

Shufaad

 

Gold: A sensible bull but bear still in the frame

Salam. Kelas Pattern and Strategies: Forex and Gold masih di buka untuk pendaftaran. Bagi yang berminat, hubungi saya di talian 016-6447174. TQ

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Good day traders!

Gold daily

Technically;

  1. Good news first; the yellow metal closed the day above the 200 EMA. A potential bull is in the fray.
  2. Daily RSI is slightly above the equilibrium level; with its direction points lower.
  3. Gold’s Friday were mixed, with both bulls and bears trying to get their stamp on gold.  A glimpse through the H1 chart will tell you something:
  4. Gold H1

  5. Fibonacci level 23.6 at $1629 is the first support for gold. Next in line are fibo level 38.2% ($1609), the all important psycho level $1600, fibo level 50.0% ($1592), fibo level 61.8% ($1576) and Dec low at $1522.
  6. Resistance are found at $1641, $1661, $1677 and psycho level $1700.
  7. As long as gold stay above the 200 EMA , the bull momentum could potentially continue.
  8. On the other hand, a quick study on the weekly chart suggest that gold is in the descending triangle pattern. A break below the $1600 would potentially bring more weakness to gold, with its Dec low $1522 as the next target. Meanwhile, a break above the slopping trend line would targeted the $1661 level, its weekly high. Next on the list is the psycho level$1700.
  9. RSI weekly is still below 50 but the direction remain important.
  10. Gold weekly

A break on every support and resistance levels are very crucial as technically, all signals are mixed up. Fundamental analysis is the next best thing to rely on.

Happy piping!

Shufaad.

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Trading Philosophy

“Unnecessary fear of a bad decision is a major stumbling block to good decisions.”

— Jim Camp: Renowned negotiations trainer and coach

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Gold: Not yet, just not yet

Good day traders!

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. Gold had rose for three straight days now and traditionally any gain in the early week of the year would signal more bulls are coming from the metal .
  2. The question now; can this bulls continue? To answer that question, I drew a 200 MA on our chart. And by looking at it now, the current price, which now stands at $1611.15 are still below our 200 MA, which at this point of writing is at $1630.68.
  3. In order for gold to confirm its bullish momentum, it need to be above the 200 MA and eventually making the level a strong support level.
  4. Taking into record, our 21Dec high at $1642 was the last it ever went above the MA. It turn out to be a doji.
  5. Using ADX, we can simply see that there’s no trend yet for the yellow metal. ADX itself is still at 22 and both the directions are pointing lower.
  6. RSI is still hovering on the equilibrium level.
  7. Our strong support lies at psycho level $1600, $1583,$1560 and $1522.
  8. Resistances are found at $1642, $1666, psycho level $1700 and $1762.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

Gold: Can the lines hold on?

Good day traders!

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. I use moving averages to track trends and eventually to generate entry signals on dips and rallies.
  2. On the above chart, I used three EMAs; 50, 100 and 200 on a daily chart.
  3. Use as a trend, the three EMAs are still on the proper order to the upside; although the 50EMA have shown some tendency to cross the 100EMA. But it ain’t happen yet, so its still bull on the card.
  4. What’s more important is that the price have already break the 200EMA and this can only mean two things; first its the end of the bull and the start of the bear OR its going to find its way back above the 200EMA which is by now at $1620.55.
  5. EMA has always been a good support since gold being traded. The only time the 50 crosses the 100EMA is in October 2006, where eventually an inverse head and shoulder pattern took over and its bullish since.
  6. It’s become more interesting in Weekly chart:

Gold Weekly

  1. Price had already used 50EMA as a support line and by end of the week, a potential morning doji star pattern would occur.
  2. 100 and 200 EMA? well, they are seems to far to good. :)
  3. Supports are found at $1582, $1560, $1532, psycho level $1500 and key support at $1478. Below that….ermmm I don’t even want to think about it.
  4. Resistances are found at psycho level $1600, $1623, $1650, $1680 and psycho level $1700. Ending the month above $1700 would signal more confidence in bull.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

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Trading Philosophy

“The biggest mistake that you can make is to believe that you are working for somebody else. Job security is gone. The driving force of a career must come from the individual. Remember: Jobs are owned by the company, you own your career!”

— Earl Nightingale: was an American motivational speaker and author

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