Mengapa anda perlu belajar Analisis Teknikal?

Salam.

Pertama sekali saya ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada semua yang membeli ebook dan  buku Analisis Teknikal Harga Emas semenjak dari awal di lancarkan sehinggalah kini. Ketika artikel ini sedang di tulis, saya sudah hampir 80% menyiapkan update bagi ebook tersebut; yang mana ianya merupakan update kali ke 3.

Saya juga ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada mereka yang telah menghadiri Seminar Pelaburan Emas dan Analisis Teknikal sebelum ini. Input yang di berikan oleh peserta terdahulu telah saya gunakan untuk memperbaiki kualiti dan content presentation saya.

OK, berbalik kepada persoalan utama kita; mengapa anda perlu belajar Analisis Teknikal?

Secara ringkasnya, dengan mempelajari ilmu Analisis Teknikal anda akan dapat:

  1. Mengetahui bilakah masa yang paling terbaik untuk membeli, memborong atau pun menjual stok emas yang ada.
  2. Bagaimanakah anda, sama ada anda dealer Public Gold atau pun tidak, dapat memaksimumkan keuntungan dengan mengetahui turun dan naik harga emas DAN
  3. Bagi yang bercita-cita ingin menukar kerjaya kepada Pembaca Graf Sepenuh Masa (macam saya!), ini adalah langkah pertama anda ke arah kerjaya yang juga di gelar sebagai Recession Proof Career ini. Mana tak nya, takda sape yang boleh pecat anda!

Baiklah, apa sebenarnya yang akan anda belajar nanti? Emm kita mulakan dengan yang pertama:

  • Bagaimana mahu menggunakan MetaTrader 4 selaku platform utama untuk memantau harga emas. Anda akan di ajar bagaimana mahu meng-install, mencipta akaun baru, bermain dengan tools dan indicators dan lain-lain lagi.
  • Analogi: Bayangkan jika anda mahu memandu kereta baru….ok…, apa kata kereta itu ialah BMW 5 Series F10. Baik. Bagi yang biasa membawa kereta kancil atau Saga BLM, nak carik hand brake bukanlah satu major issue. Begitu juga yang memandu Camry; walaupun hand brake Camry wajar digelar leg brake!. Tapi jika anda memandu F10, jangan harap anda menjumpai hand brake sebab memang takde!
  • Jadi sebelum anda ingin membaca harga emas, apa kata saya ajar anda untuk membiasakan diri dan jari jemari anda dengan segala mak nenek yang ada dalam MetaTrader 4 tu. Insyallah, ia akan dapat membantu anda semua untuk bergerak dengan lebih pantas kelak.

Yang kedua;

  • Harga ialah candlestick dan candlestick itu adalah harga. Di dalam study candlestick ini, saya akan mengajar anda betapa pentingnya chart patterns. Tanpa mempelajari candlestick, sebenarnya anda tidak belajar apa-apa dari Analisis Teknikal. Tak percaya? Boleh baca artikel dari Jim Wyckoff, penganalisis teknikal kitco.com.
  • Even better, saya petik sedikit dari artikel beliau. Kata nya, “My “primary” trading tools include chart patterns, fundamental analysis and trend lines.” Kalau dah Jim Wyckoff kata primary trading tools nya ialah chart pattern, siapa kita nak kata chart pattern tak penting? Malah dalam kesemua buku teknikal saya baca sepanjang 6 tahun ini, asas utama yang di titikberatkan ialah berkaitan candlestick, sama ada pattern ataupun formation. Maksudnya…penting la tu.
  • Mengapa anda perlu belajar membaca candlestick atau pun chart pattern ini? Mudah saja. Kerana dengan mempelajarinya anda akan dapat mengetahui sama ada harga emas akan naik dan terus naik lagi ATAU pun ianya akan turun semula. Pentingkan?

Yang ketiga;

  • Jika anda sudah mendapat hint, atau idea, bila harga emas akan jatuh atau naik, seterusnya anda juga perlu tahu ini; kalau harga jatuh, dia boleh jatuh sampai berapa? Kalau dia naik pulak, naik sampai berapa?.
  • Persoalan di atasa boleh di jawab dengan mempelajari konsep Support dan Resistance (S&R) levels. Displin S&R ini terbahagi kepada 2 bahagian iatu; Price Action dan Fibonacci level. Insyallah saya akan menerangkan kepada anda dengan sejelas-jelasnya.
  • Owh, lagi satu…biasanya bahagian ini akan di ajar selepas lunch. Dan kalau lunch kat Cititel tu memanglah sangat sedap. So…..gendang gendut tali kecapi lah, kenyang perut, mata tu kena lah sendal dengan lidi :) .

Yang ke empat;

  • Seperti juga penganalisis teknikal profesional yang lain, saya juga mempunyai secondary toolbox saya. Untuk topik ini, saya akan menerangkan bagaimana untuk melukis trend line dan equidistant channel, menggunakan Moving Average dan juga membaca Relative Strength Index atau RSI.

dan yang terakhir sekali ialah;

  • Saya akan mengajar anda bagaimana untuk memaksimakan keuntungan anda dengan pelaburan emas fizikal Public Gold dan UOB Gold Saving Account. Bab ni kita akan banyak kira-kira. Dan untuk rekod, saudara Syukor Hashim sendiri pernah untung satu malam sebanyak RM3000 dalam hanya satu malam! (esok nya dia belanja saya kentaki!)
  • Tak perlu lah bawa kalkulator sebab dalam laptop kita pon dah ada kalkulator. Tapi kalau ada yang nak bawak, bawak lah lebih ye!

Eh, mimpi apa pulak saya malam ni. Apa kata…..saya share kan terus slide Analisis Teknikal yang saya siapkan untuk kelas di Kota Bahru, Kelantan baru-baru ini. Sekurang-kurangnya, anda dapat overview dengan lebih jelas apa yang anda akan hadapi. ok? Bole? Sila baca dengan tenang :)

Analisis Teknikal Kota Bahru 19 Nov 2011

Nah! Semuanya saya dah berikan kepada anda. Sekarang adalah masanya untuk anda mengambil tindakan yang sebijak-bijaknya.

DAFTARLAH SEKARANG UNTUK KELAS PELABURAN EMAS DAN ANALISIS TEKNIKAL.

Insyallah kita akan berjumpa di Cititel Midvalley pada 17 Disember 2011 ini.

Terima kasih.

Shufaad

+60166447174

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A brief about interest rate

Salam.

1. Kelas Pelaburan Emas dan Analisis Teknikal akan di adakan pada 17 Disember 2011 di Cititel Midvalley, KL. Yuran RM300.

2. Kelas Forex Patterns and Strategies akan di adakan pada 22 Disember 2011 di Anjung Technology, Ayer Keroh, Melaka. Yuran RM500.

Hubungi saya untuk pendaftaran. Tq.

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Good day traders!

Not much of a trading today because its Thanks Giving Day in the US. For that reason, I want to share something important but often neglected by some traders. It is called interest rate.

A quick quiz would do the trick here, do you know what is the interest rate of your country? Say… Malaysia? How about China? India? I bet we know the US and Euro interest rate because these country (zone) are always on the header. Attached is a the interest table that you might find useful:

Central Bank Interest rate
Fed Reserve 0.25%
Bank of England 1.25%
Bank of Japan 0.1%
Bank of China 6.56%

For a full list of the interest rate, you can read here.

So, why do traders listen to interest rate?  Now, generally speaking, when all other variables are kept equal, rising interest rate (central bank tightening) have a tendency to contribute to an appreciation in a currency. This is because higher-yielding currencies attract more demand from large institutional investors, who are consistently in search of ways to earn more on their money.

By the way, yield means the income return on an investment. This refers to the interest or dividends received from a security and is usually expressed annually as a percentage based on the investment’s cost, its current market value or its face value. (Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yield.asp#ixzz1echyfV6c).

If on the other hand, there is a lowering of interest rates (central bank easing), the tendency is towards a depreciation of the currency. This is due to decreasing demand by the institutional investors, who generally tend to move their money away from lower yielding assets.

Kept in mind that from a foreign exchange trading perspective, the appreciation or depreciation in the exchange rate is less a product of the absolute value of the interest rate than the direction of change in the interest rate itself. In other words, although the current interest rate for a country’s currency is important in helping the market to determine its exchange value, the direction of interest rate change is even more important.

Lets face it, just because a currency carries a high yield, it does not ensure an appreciation in the exchange rate. But if the currency’s central bank continue to raise interest rate, and indicates an intention to keep doing so, this can have a considerable impact on appreciation in the currency. And it goes vice versa.

As you already know, central banks are the one who initiate the interest rate changes. These institutions also make decisions that help determine the direction on the interest rate. In adjusting the interest rate, central banks seek to achieve a delicate balance between attaining a significant level of economic growth while staving off excessive inflation.

A certain controlled level of inflation is necessary for economic growth, as a country without inflation is a sign of a stagnant economy. At the same time however, excessive inflation can be enormously disadvantageous to an economy and its consumer. Therefore, each central bank must take both goals of economic growth and inflation control into serious consideration when setting monetary policy.

Generally speaking, central banks will look to increase interest rate (tighten) in order to help stave off excessive inflation. Conversely, central banks will look to decrease interest rates (ease) in order to help stimulate economic growth. Either way, central banks have the power to impact the foreign exchange markets enormously by making changes in interest rate policy.

Often, an actual change in rate policy is not even needed to affect a currency’s value. Merely a comment hinting at potential policy intention within a speech by the Fed chairman, for example, is often sufficient to trigger drastic price moves. This highlights the fact that it is not as much the actual fundamental that move currency exchange rates. Rather, it is more the trader’s collective perceptions and expectations of the fundamentals that truly drive these markets.

With the understanding of the interest rates, traders created a new breed of trading called carry trade, which I’ll share with you later.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

+60166447174

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Trading Philosophy

“The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you’re willing to pay the price”

- Vince Lombardi, Pro Football Hall of Fame

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Gold: A risk off trade

Salam. Pendaftaran untuk kelas Personal Coaching bagi bulan Disember kini di buka. Hubungi saya sekarang untuk pendaftaran.

Kelas Forex Patterns and Strategies akan di adakan pada 22 Disember 2011 bertempat di Ayer Keroh, Melaka. Fee hanya RM500. Hubungi saya untuk pendaftaran dan maklumat lanjut. TQ.

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Good day traders!

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. Nearest support lies at $1668 (fibo 50%), $1636 (fibo 61.8%) and psycho level $1600.
  2. Resistances are waiting at $1682 (fibo 61.8%), psycho level $1700, $1727 (fibo 50.0%), $1738 (fibo 23.6%) and $1772 (fibo 38.2%)
  3. Daily RSI support more weakness from the yellow metal.
  4. With no really big news from the US, Euro zone again become very significant in driving the fear and greed of traders.
  5. Risk off trading simply mean traders give up their position in gold to sought other investment instruments such as equity and stocks. A simple way to explain is when people sell gold, they buy USD. For that matters, please watch US Dollar Index closely. It might provide us some valuable informations.

Shufaad

+60166447174

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Gold: Watch for the Star

Good day traders!

Weekly

Technically;

  1. Above is a gold weekly chart. If you’ve been following me since day one, its very rare that I comment on a weekly chart. However, lately I sense that the pattern formed on a weekly chart seems to be more reliable than any other time frame;the other is the daily chart of course.
  2. Now back to our chart. Gold has been trying hard to break the psycho level $1800 but it seems the sellers have set their camp well. A shooting star pattern is the next best probability that could be seen by end of this week.
  3. And if you noticed, you’ll find a head and shoulder formation on hourly chart. It sure is something ;) .
  4. Resistance now lies at $1772 ans psycho level $1800.
  5. On hourly, gold opens to more downside risk. Supports are found at $1750, $1726 (fibo 50.0%) and $1680 (gap and fibo 38.2%).
  6. For spot traders, use 10 ema on weekly and daily chart as your entry point. Its worth the waiting.

I’m bias to the downside on short term but remain bull in medium. A correction is always good for gold.

Shufaad

60166447174

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Trading Philisopohy

“In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepare mind”

- Louis Pasteur, Famous Chemist and Microbiologist

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EURUSD: Consolidation in an Uptrend Channel

Kelas Forex Patterns and Strategies masih lagi di buka untuk pendaftaran. Klik di sini untuk maklumat lanjut. TQ

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Good day traders!

H4

Technically;

  1. Trading for this pair has been more aggressive lately, with ups and downs taking turns one after another.
  2. For that reason, I prefer to use price action technique to look for supports and resistances.
  3. Breaking the upper trend line (blue line) would bring the pair to $1.38692 (4 Nov 11 high and 19 Oct 11 high) and $1.39140 (17 Oct 2011 high).
  4. Looking down, price have to break to downside (green line) trend line to continue its recent down trend.
  5. Near supports are found at $1.37225  (8 Nov 11 low), $1.36547 (3 Nov 11 low) and $1.36086 (1 Nov 11 low).
  6. While price still above the 10 ema, I’m poised to the upside.

EURUSD has been a game of mind and patience. Be wise.

Shufaad

60166447174

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Trading Philosophy

“Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get”

- Ray Kroc, Founder, McDonald’s Corp

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Gold: Buying dips

Salam. Kelas Forex Pattern and Strategies masih lagi di buka untuk pendaftaran. Untuk keterangan lanjut berkenaan kelas tersebut, sila klik di sini.

Terima kasih.

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Good day traders!

Attached are the Gold chart in three different time frames:

Hourly

Daily

Weekly

Technically;

  1. I’m using a 10 ema as a filter and entry point and RSI (14) to measure the strength.
  2. With the current RSI in H1 is in overbought territory, I’m waiting for a return to the neutral zone, with a confirmation of candle. An entry will be likely to be place at or near the 10 ema.
  3. Both RSI in daily and weekly are lining up to the upside with much more to gain.
  4. With the current market take place, supports are found at $1788, $1772, $1750 and $1723.
  5. Strong resistance stands at $1800, with breaking the said level would bring further gain towards $1815, $1840 and $1850.
  6. Patterns and formations becomes vital here as prices have started to revisit its previous territories.

Trade wise and happy trading!

Shufaad

+60166447174

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Trading Philosophy

“I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people’s accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man’s failure”

- Earl Warren, 14th Chief Justice of the United States

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EURUSD: Momentum loss

Salam. Saya merancang untuk mengadakan satu kelas Forex Pattern and Strategy (1 hari sahaja) di Melaka pada minggu kedua bulan November ini. Tempat terhad, hanya seramai 20 orang sahaja. Yuran sangat berpatutan iaitu RM500 sahaja. Kelas ini adalah bagi mereka yang telah menceburkan diri dalam Forex tetapi masih belum lagi menjana keuntungan. Ataupun bahasa mudahnya masih lagi mendapat kerugian. Jika berminat, hubungi saya secepat mungkin untuk pendaftaran. TQ

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Good day traders!

EURUSD Hourly

Technically;

  1. After late diving yesterday, the greenback seems to have out of steam. RSI is placed well below the 30 while the distance between the signal (red dotted line) and the MACD line seems to get narrower, thus resulting in the small size histogram bar.
  2. Price are currently been hold above the fibo level 38.2% at $1.38271. Historically, this level has proved to become a resilient support and therefore would provide the bounce needed to bring the pair up.
  3. Having said so, with the uncertainty resulting in the Eurozone lately, any bounce would be seen as correction to the pair as bear are setting up the pace in the long run.
  4. Supports are seen at fibo level 38.2%, fibo level 50.0% (1.36972) and fibo level 61.8% (1.35697).
  5. Resistance are found at fibo level 23.6% (1.39871), psycho level $1.4000 and $1.42442, 27 Oct 2011 high.

I’m bias to the downside while keeping my eyes open towards the fundamental news this week.

Shufaad.

+0166447174

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