AUDUSD: Waiting for a pullback

Salam. Kelas Personal Coaching hanya tinggal satu tempat lagi iaitu pada 16 dan 17 Januari 2012. Hubungi saya secepat mungkin.

Kelas Patterns and Strategies akan di adakan pada 26 Januari 2012 bertempat di Ayer Keroh, Melaka. Yuran hanya RM500. Terhad kepada 10 orang sahaja.

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Good day traders!

The big picture of the pair look like this:

AUDUSD Weekly

Technically;

  1. AUDUSD is lining up for a good bull when a bullish harami pattern confirmed.
  2. RSI weekly supports this view when it stays just a slightly above the equilibrium level.
  3. Lets have a sneak at our H1 time frame now to look for the entry;
  4. AUDUSD H1

  5. I reckon we wait for a pullback as both of our indicators; RSI and Stochastic, are both in the overbought territory.
  6. Both the 1.03268 and 10 EMA can be use as the entry, so keep you eyes on this levels closely. You can have the option to use ATR as the stop loss while trailing it manually in the coming weeks.
  7. The game now is patient.

I’m strongly bias to the upside.

Shufaad

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Trading Philosophy

“You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can’t get them across, your ideas won’t get you anywhere.”

—Lee Iacocca: Businessman, author, former CEO of Chrysler Corporation

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Gold: What say u, Mr Fibo?

Good day and happy new year to all my fellow traders!

We are going to start this year analysis with a yearly fibonacci retracement that were drawn from Januari 2011 till December 2011.

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. After surging to the highest level since the day the earth were created, gold price falls freely to the levels many would have not imagine before. It was the biggest drop in gold price since 2008.
  2. For comparison, in 2008, gold went to a high of $1032.60 on the 17/03/08 before plunged to the low of $681.43 on 24/10/08. A significant drop of $351.17 for a period of no less than 7 month. Sub prime crisis was that culprit then, and everybody seems to panic beyond any reasons whatsoever. This time around, Euro zone crisis was and still the cancer. A high of $1920.80 were recorded in 6/9/11 before a drop to the low of $1522.55 on the 29/12/11 were spotted. A drop of $398.25, more than $47.08 from the previous biggest drop in history. And this happened only in 3 months!
  3. Using Fibonacci retracement, we can clearly see how the gold price move and significantly respect the fibo retracements levels. (see above chart)
  4. Fibo level 61.8% or $1543.23 seems to be the last man standing. Breaking that level would put more pressure on the next psycho level at $1500. A break from that level would see more damages as it approach another support at $1478, and $1425.
  5. However, looking at our daily chart, a hammer were formed on the 29/12/11 signaling the end of current bear, thus gives hope for more bulls for the yellow metal. Resistance comes in the form of fibo levels, with the nearest level, 50.0% lies at $1614.37. If you take price action as your field of study, $1600 stands as a strong resistance or psycho level. Looking north, fibo level 38.2% or $1687.05 is the second resistance. Our gap at $1682 prove to be quite significant too. Next resistance is at fibo level 23.6%  ($1777). Our psycho level $1800 is our strong resistance level.
  6. Daily RSI showed some strength to the upside, but as long as it stays below 50, bear is still in control.
  7. To get things more interesting, I will draw a fibo level from the 2008 drop.
  8. Gold Weekly

  9. Taking fibonacci as our field of study, fibo level 38.2% at $1448.01 is within reach, especially if you’re taking the RSI weekly into account. A drop to that level would attract more bargain hunters especially for the Asians, particularly the jeweleries producers.
  10. Fundamentals plays a major role in determining the gold’s supply and demand activities. I reckon more reading for you guys from now on. Technicals and sentiment trading are in tandem now as the psychological factor plays the driving force factor behind the traders and investors actions.

Trade wisely! And Happy piping!

Shufaad

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Gold: Can the lines hold on?

Good day traders!

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. I use moving averages to track trends and eventually to generate entry signals on dips and rallies.
  2. On the above chart, I used three EMAs; 50, 100 and 200 on a daily chart.
  3. Use as a trend, the three EMAs are still on the proper order to the upside; although the 50EMA have shown some tendency to cross the 100EMA. But it ain’t happen yet, so its still bull on the card.
  4. What’s more important is that the price have already break the 200EMA and this can only mean two things; first its the end of the bull and the start of the bear OR its going to find its way back above the 200EMA which is by now at $1620.55.
  5. EMA has always been a good support since gold being traded. The only time the 50 crosses the 100EMA is in October 2006, where eventually an inverse head and shoulder pattern took over and its bullish since.
  6. It’s become more interesting in Weekly chart:

Gold Weekly

  1. Price had already used 50EMA as a support line and by end of the week, a potential morning doji star pattern would occur.
  2. 100 and 200 EMA? well, they are seems to far to good. :)
  3. Supports are found at $1582, $1560, $1532, psycho level $1500 and key support at $1478. Below that….ermmm I don’t even want to think about it.
  4. Resistances are found at psycho level $1600, $1623, $1650, $1680 and psycho level $1700. Ending the month above $1700 would signal more confidence in bull.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

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Trading Philosophy

“The biggest mistake that you can make is to believe that you are working for somebody else. Job security is gone. The driving force of a career must come from the individual. Remember: Jobs are owned by the company, you own your career!”

— Earl Nightingale: was an American motivational speaker and author

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Divergence Trading

Good day traders.

One of the most effective analytical tool I use to detect price reversal is price oscillator divergence. Of course, by no means should it be inferred in any way that divergence will always predict a reversal, or even that they are correct a majority of the time. But well defined price oscillator divergences, especially on longer term charts,can be surprisingly accurate in many instances. Furthermore, catching a major price reversal at the correct time can be so potentially profitable that only a few accurate divergences are needed to offset the inevitable false signals.

Price oscillator divergences can be spotted with just two elements on price charts; price and oscillators such as RSI, Stochastics and MACD. A divergence occurs when there is an imbalance between the price element and the oscillator element. They begin to go separate ways and start telling opposite stories. This is when the oscillator is providing a strong hint that price may be losing its current momentum, and a change in price direction may therefore be impending.

So, for example, bearish divergence ( which hints at an impending reversal back down) occurs when price hits a higher high while the oscillator hits a corresponding lower high.

Bearish Divergence

The indication after a clear bearish divergence signal is that price may soon turn and go back down as the higher high in price loses its upward momentum and begins falling.

Bullish divergence (which hints at an impending reversal back up) occurs when price hits a lower low while the oscillator hits a corresponding higher low.

Bullish Divergence

The indication after a clear bullish divergence signal is that price may soon turn and go back up as the lower low in price loses its downward momentum and begins rising.

Divergences are often used as hints, or early indications of possible turns and reversals. Much less often are they employed exclusively as a full fledged, self sufficient trading strategy. But used in conjunction with other trading tools, divergences can often be a remarkably effective method for helping to time major market turns.

Happy Piping

Shufaad

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Gold:In consolidation pattern

Salam.Pendaftaran untuk kelas Pattern and Strategies: Forex, Gold and Silver masih lagi di buka. Hubungi saya untuk maklumat lanjut. TQ

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Good day traders!

Gold Daily

Technically;

  1. Gold in consolidation pattern; or to be exact in an asymmetrical triangle pattern.
  2. The only way to trade such pattern is by using the breakout strategy. And to ensure the effectiveness of the breakout, we should add some filters such as candle attitude and time of the day.
  3. Supports are found at psycho level $1700, $1681 (fibo 38.2%), $1666, and key support at $1650. A break from that level would bring more damage to gold’s bull in near term and one should take $1623 (fibo 38.2%) and psycho level $1600 into account.
  4. Resistances are found at $1726 (fibo 50.0%), $1750, $1763, $1771 (fibo 61.8%) and psycho level $1800.
  5. Prior to last week direction, a break to the downside is more likely to happen. Nevertheless, bargain hunters are setting up their camp at those respective support levels.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

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Trading Philosophy

“True wealth is a byproduct of living a principled life.”

- Garrett Gunderson: is an entrepreneur and author

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USDCAD: Set to break the bound

Salam. Kelas Personal Coaching untuk bulan Disember telah pun penuh. Pendaftaran untuk bulan Januari 2012 kini di buka. Hubungi saya untuk maklumat lanjut. Terima kasih.

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Good day traders!

usdcad

Technically;

  1. USDCAD is now traded in a range bound of $1.02224 and $1.00759 again after a strong USD pushed the price to a high of $1.05228.
  2. By looking at the prior trend and recent development in oil price, we are set to see the price to break the strong support level 1.05228. We can see it in the form of a descending triangle pattern
  3. Awaiting on the downside are psycho level $1.0000 and 27 Okt 2011 low at $0.98897.
  4. Going north would mean a bounce from the $1.05228 level. And it will be traded in a range bound again.
  5. RSI shows more weakness from the pair.

With oil still making its mark above $100, I’m bias to the downside for this pair.

Happy piping!

Shufaad

60166447174

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Trading Philosophy

“Income is derived by what value we can create for others, therefore do what you enjoy, do it the best, and this will allow you to create the most value.”

- Garrett Gunderson, is an entrepreneur and author.

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Gold: Support and Divergences

Salam. Bagi mereka yang telah menghadiri Seminar Pelaburan Emas dan Analisis Teknikal, saya sangat-sangat menggalakkan anda untuk hadir ke kelas Patterns and Strategies. Ini kerana anda akan di ajar bagaimana untuk menjana keuntungan sebagai seorang traders, sama ada Forex ataupun Gold spot. Dalam bahasa mudahnya, kelas Patterns and Strategies adalah sambungan daripada kelas Analisis Teknikal, dengan tumpuan lebih kepada strategi untuk membuat duit.

Jumpa anda di Melaka!

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Good day traders!

Gold Hourly

Technically;

  1. After letting a bear pass its gate recently ($1670), support seem to re-established its mandate at psycho levels $1700. Two other attempts to break the level seems to stumbled.
  2. Two divergence occurs; first is shown using the red trend line while the second and the most recent is shown in blue trend line. The former has resulted in a drop in a price; while the latter resulting in a move to the north. And support plays its vital role here by providing the reason to bounce.
  3. Resistances are found at $1735, $1750, $1763 and $1771.
  4. Supports are found at $1726, $1710,$1700 and $1680.

With recent development in price, I’m bias to the upside.

Shufaad

0166447174

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Trading Philosophy

“I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people’s accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man’s failure”

-Earl Warren, 14th Chief Justice of the United States

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