Forex: AUDUSD in retracement mode

Good day traders!

AUDUSD Daily 16 April 2014

AUDUSD Daily 16 April 2014

The pair has been traded nicely in the channel for the past 4 months and now it seems to has reached a possibility of a retracement. A bearish engulfing pattern is seen at the top of the channel, adding more weight to the possibility. Having said that, it need to break and close below 0.9300 to suggest a reversal in the current trend. Near target is at 0.9200. Both MACD and RSI support this view, although a crossover in MACD is more preferred.

But, there’s also a probability for the price to extend its move towards 0.943 and 0.9525. I can’t write that off either. For the mean time, I’m looking into the retracement mode for the pair.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

China’s Gold Market: Progress and Prospects

Good day traders!

Here’s a recently release report from World Gold Council, entitled China’s Gold Market: Progress and Prospects.

China's Gold Market Report

China’s Gold Market Report

As somebody who’s trading spot gold and physical gold for a living, this is a must read report. Below is the summary of the report which I copied from the WGC website;

Summary:

The World Gold Council recently released a major report, China’s gold market: progress and prospects, examining the factors that have driven China’s rise to become the number one producer and consumer of gold since the market began liberalising in the late 1990s. It also highlights why, despite this steep growth in demand, the market will continue to expand, irrespective of short term blips in the economy.

 The next six years are expected to see China’s middle class grow by over 60%, or 200m people, to a total of 500 million. Comparing this to the total population of the US, which stands at 319m, puts the size of this new market of affluent consumers, with the propensity to buy gold, in perspective.

In addition to these newly emerging middle classes, rising real incomes, a deepening pool of private savings and rapid urbanisation across China suggest that the outlook for gold jewellery and investment demand in the next four years will remain strong.

Key facts:

  • China’s continuing urbanisation means that it now has 170 cities with more than one million inhabitants - within these cities, the middle classes currently number 300million and are set to grow to 500million by 2020. Demand for gold amongst those with a greater disposable income and limited investment opportunities will continue to grow.
  • Chinese savings levels remain high – there is an estimated US$7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain small, around $300bn. Gold is seen as a stable, accessible investment by consumers, particularly in the light of rising house prices and a lack of alternative savings options. Chinese investors have a preference for physical gold over paper, with investment focused on small bars, gift bars or Gold Accumulation Plans (GAPs). New gold investment products mean that medium term demand for bars and coins could reach close to 500t by 2017 – a rise of nearly 25% above its record level last year.
  • China has become the world’s number one jewellery market, nearly trebling in size over the past decade – at 669t in 2013, it accounts for 30% of global jewellery demand. Estimates suggest that demand will continue to grow and reach 780t by 2017. There are now over 100,000 retail outlets selling 24k gold and thousands of manufacturers nationwide.
  • Consumer sentiment toward gold is unwavering – although 40% of jewellery
    consumption relates to weddings, the appetite for gold in China goes beyond occasions and gift giving. 80% of consumers surveyed for this report planned to maintain or increase their spending on 24-carat gold jewellery over the next 12 months believing that gold will hold its long-term value and because they expect to have a higher level of disposable income.
  • Chinese electronics demand for gold will see small gains in the next four years – industrial demand has grown with electronics being the key driver (climbing from 16t in 2003 to 66t in 2013. China is also the leading market for gold related patents such as the use of nanogold in healthcare.
  • Official gold holdings in China totalled 1,054t at the end of 2013making the country the world’s sixth largest holder of bullion- based on this declared stock, gold represents 1% of China’s total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country’s foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013. Speculation continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings.
  • China has gone from being a minor producer to the world’s largest source of mined gold - in the past ten years production has doubled from 217t to 437t.

Happy reading folks! Better read this than reading the local newspaper. :)

Shufaad

 

Spot Gold: Bullish week for gold

Good day traders!

Gold Weekly 14 April 2014

Gold Weekly 14 April 2014

Technically, its going to be a bullish week for gold. A hammer, seen on last 2 weeks, proved to become a crucial candle for this bulls buildup. Last week’s candle support this bullish view.

No crossover on MACD after losing a little bit of momentum last week with MACD line nicely cross above the 0.00 level.

After some significant drop last 2 weeks, RSI seems to have recovered and now stays above the equilibrium level. This is also supporting the bullish view on the yellow metal buildup.

Near supports are seen at 1277.47 and 1251.63 while resistances can be found at 1361.75 and 1392.

Fundamentally, I’ll be closely monitoring the US sales data this week, with Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Core CPI are being scheduled. The first 2 datas are important as a gauge for the customer spending behaviour while the latter is important for the inflation data. On Thursday, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is the last news to watch before the market close for Good Friday.

The Chinese GDP and Industrial Production data will appear on Wednesday and its data is important to show how strong the Chinese economy is.

More speaks from Janet Yellen, both on the Tuesday and Thursday. Market is expecting more clear clues on the interest rate hike issue after the March FOMC minute.

The Ukraine crisis could be again the potential front runner for the yellow metal bulls.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

Forex: A retracement in price but EURUSD still heading towards 1.4000

Good day traders!

EURUSD Daily 21 Mac 2014

EURUSD Daily 21 Mac 2014

Technically, psycho level 1.3800 serves as pivotal level and also a strong resistance level for the price. If the pair decided to stay below the level, then a move towards support levels 1.3721 and 1.3663, both are fibonacci levels 50.0% and 61.8%, is very much possible. Psycho level 1.3700 is sandwich between these levels. MACD daily confirmed this with a crossover and a histogram flipping.

I’m looking at a possible buying dip here. My money is still on the bulls as the upper trendline is still attach. Psycho level 1.4000 is the next target.

With Fed is nowhere near the interest rate hike, I’m changing my view towards Euro zone. Next week PMI would be worth of watch.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

Fundamental: The Money Flows

Good day traders!

Yesterday’s US Employment report; namely Non Farm payroll (NFP) and Unemployment rate; received mix reactions from traders.

NFP 7 Mac 2014

NFP 7 Mac 2014

While NFP was above the forecast at 175K, the unemployment rate gain 0.1% at 6.7% from 6.6%. In layman word, more people had been employed in the month of February 2014 but at the same time, there are increasing number of people who are actively looking for jobs around the state. This is particularly due to the bad weather that has plagued the U.S. economic activity so far this year, placing a drag on consumption, production, and employment.

You can read the full report from BLS by clicking at this link.

Now back to our main topic. People have been asking me one particular question, if the money is not in the State, where does it goes? If you’re an active investor, where do you want to put your money into?

Well, obviously we are not Buffer, nor Gates, but we do have a portion of our wealth that we can and willingly to invest somewhere.

During my personal coaching class, I have this diagram with me, showing what I called the money flows.

money flow

money flow

There are numerous possibilities of where the money could go next. It could be either in commodities, equities and maybe treasuries. And don’t forget there are some experts calling for the year of 2014 as the Currency year. You can’t ignore that.

For gold bugs, hunting isn’t over yet. It has just began.

Dow and S&P are the clear winners last year. Will they be able to create more wealth for the Street guys? Or is it near to bubble?

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

p/s: You are most welcome to join me in FxPro. Click here to open your real account.

pp/s: Jika anda berminat untuk mempelajari lebih lanjut mengenai Forex Fundamental, apa kata anda sertai Webinar percuma ini yang di adakan oleh FxPro. Anda boleh sertai nya di sini.


 

Spot Silver: $21.00 is the support to break

Good day traders!

Silver H4

Silver H4

Looking at the candles hovering above the support level $21, it seems that both buyers and sellers are looking for some clue before taking big position. This is where fundamentals plays their part. Pattern wise, it is a descending triangle pattern.

Momentum shown by the RSI is below 50, a sign of weakness. It has been showing the weakness since 17 Feb, with a significant drop shown by a bearish divergence signal.

Its a waiting game.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

Forex: EURUSD hit the resistance, looking to build pressure to the downside

Good day traders!

EURUSD Daily 5 Mac 2014

EURUSD Daily 5 Mac 2014

Technically, 1.38315 proved to be strong resistance level after all. After a strong surge (shown by the long white candle) towards the resistance level, price suddenly lost the momentum. As a result, a harami or an inside day pattern was formed.

With recent development from the Euro zone, we would see a possible run towards the support level 1.36388. Breaking that level would mean the pair has to face the uptrending trend line. And this could be tricky.

There’s too much fundamental data to chew right now. Keep your strategy firm. Believe.

Happy pipping!

Shufaad

Powered by WishList Member - Membership Software